When it was preparing to go public in 2012, Facebook kindled
hopes that the broad interest in the company would accelerate a slow rise in
new stock offerings.
Twitter may be the most eagerly awaited market debutante since Facebook, but its initial public offering doesn’t carry the same weight of market expectations. In some respects, it will be just one of several billion-dollar I.P.O.’s this year.
As Twitter this week begins an eight-city road show to pitch
its stock sale to big institutional shareholders like Fidelity, BlackRock and
Legg Mason, it will be entering one of the strongest markets for I.P.O.’s in
three years, especially in the United States. Despite Facebook’s initial
stumble in its market debut in May 2012, investors have shown a growing
appetite for initial offerings, eager to take risks in hopes of big rewards
when newly public companies’ stocks rise.
Retail investors, in particular the very wealthy, are also
seeking exposure to soaring stock of new companies.
“High net worth private client individuals who were
reluctant to participate in the I.P.O. market a year ago are increasingly
reallocating money towards equities,” said Neil A. Mitchell, a managing
director of equity capital markets at Credit Suisse.
This year, 169 companies have gone public in the United
States, raising $45 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Both figures are at
the highest levels since the financial crisis of 2008, though the number of
offerings remains below the level set before the financial crisis. And nine
companies have raised more than $1 billion in their debuts so far in 2013, the
largest number in at least five years.
“There’s a willingness to pay for growth in a slow-growth
economy,” said Liz Myers, JPMorgan Chase’s head of global equity capital
markets.
Still, while Internet offerings like Twitter may get much of
the attention, the number of technology offerings actually ran at a multiyear
low for much of this year. They now account for just 18 percent of all I.P.O.’s
in the United States, according to Renaissance Capital.
The sector has shown signs of a recovery of late, with
offerings like those of the cybersecurity provider FireEye and the advertising
technology company Rocket Fuel. Both companies’ shares closed on Friday at more
than double their offering prices, with Rocket Fuel at $61.72 and FireEye at
$41.22.
Indeed, technology offerings have had an average first-day
return of 30 percent and a total average return of 47 percent, a sector
performance bested only by the consumer industry, according to Renaissance.
That sort of reception from investors will no doubt steer
more tech start-ups toward going public at some point.
“The level of tech financing right now is as high as we’ve
seen it in the last 10 years,” said Jeffrey Bunzell, the head of Americas
equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank. “That’s something we’re expecting to
continue into next year.”
This year’s two biggest offerings so far have been Plains GP
Holdings, an oil-and-gas pipeline operator that raised $2.8 billion last week,
and Zoetis, an animal health company spun off from Pfizer that raised $2.5
billion earlier this year, according to Thomson Reuters.
By comparison, Twitter is expected to raise as much as $1.4
billion in its I.P.O., and as much as $1.6 billion if its underwriters choose
to sell further shares in what the industry calls a greenshoe.
That is unlikely to strain the stock market’s ability to
digest a major offering in the same way that Facebook’s $16 billion stock sale
did last year.
“A deal like Twitter is large and important, but it’s not a
test of the I.P.O. market,” said one underwriter, who was not authorized to
speak publicly about the offering. “It’s more a reflection of the health of the
I.P.O. market and the attractiveness of the company.”
An aspect of the Facebook offering that companies are trying
their hardest to avoid is troubles on the first day of trading. Bankers blamed
technical problems on the Nasdaq stock market as well as decisions to expand
Facebook’s offering price and number of shares sold to what some critics said
were the highest possible levels. That prompted a number of investors to sell
when the stock experienced trouble trading.
Now, underwriters say, companies are more willing to price
their offerings slightly lower to ensure that their shares trade well from the
start. That means occasionally putting up with big “pops,” or significant jumps
in price on the first day of trading: Rocket Fuel and FireEye both doubled
their offering prices in their first day of trading last month. Such sharp
rises suggest that companies raised less than was possible.
Twitter itself is planning to sell its shares at $17 to $20,
less than what many optimistic analysts had expected. Company executives may
raise that price if they find exuberant demand in their week-and-a-half trip
across the country.
The company and its advisers will spend the next nine days
traveling to major cities like New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles,
meeting with institutional investors like mutual funds and hedge funds. On Nov.
6, they will assemble the final order book determining the final price and size
of the offering.
Twitter would then begin trading on Nov. 7 on the New York
Stock Exchange, under the symbol TWTR.
While Twitter is expected to be the most prominent tech
company to go public for some time, smaller but still popular contemporaries
could follow suit in the next year or two.
Names mentioned by the rumor mill include Square, the
payment company founded by Twitter’s chairman, Jack Dorsey; Dropbox, an online
storage company; and Lending Club, a specialist in online peer-to-peer lending.
Such is the strength of the I.P.O. market that not even the
two-week government shutdown earlier this month significantly harmed business.
Deal-makers said that companies already on the road pitching their offerings
witnessed little effect, though some issuers about to start the process waited
until an end to the political impasse was in sight.
A bigger factor has been the strong growth of the equity markets,
especially with interest rates still hovering near record lows. Philip Drury,
one of Citigroup’s co-head of equity capital markets for the Americas, said
that investors had proved eager to pay significantly for investments that
outperform the market and shares in fast-growing companies help fill that need.
The rise in listings has been relatively spread out across
industry sectors, though it has been dominated by the likes of energy and
health care.
“The breadth of industry representation is quite wide,” Mr.
Mitchell of Credit Suisse said. “It covers the full spectrum of the S.& P.
500, and the quality of companies coming to market by and large is actually
quite good.”
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